Monday, May 4, 2015
Saturday, May 10, 2014
technical analysis for Homeriz
TA for homeriz. buy base on Elliott Wave Theory
stochastic cross over at bottom region( rebound signal)
RSI at 30%. It show oversold and it is time to greedy when everyone not damn it.
TP 0.83( the blue circle up there) should be achieved within 3 weeks. 10 % gains excluded 1sen per share dividend in 28 MAY.
Note: recommended to set stop loss for 10% if the TP is not achieve within 3 weeks if you go for short term. Keep until next year march at least after final dividend if go for long term. Not recommend for mid term trade since lack of strong catalyst.( assume fundamental remain)
Homeriz sharing base on Fundamental analysis
Homeriz had attracted my eyes ball few days ago when I accidentally go through some investing forum. Therefore, the following is my homework for Homeriz base on Fundamental analysis. Although it seems quite late for sharing furniture stocks in this period since most of them are already double up in share price after those shining quarter result are out respectively. But anyway, hope your guys enjoy it....
Conclusion
Homeriz is a steady dividend stock, it expected to become zero debt company within 2 years with its low capex.It is slightly below fair value 0.83 now.potential gain is 10%. solid fundamental secure the safety of share price and nice sleep every night is guarantee.
Homeriz, 5160... an Upholstered home furniture not wooden based products.
- NTA, 0.43
- DY 5% 2.75 sen per share at Jan, 1 sen per share at May,Company implied 40% dividend payout...approximately can get 4-6 sen per annum
- Net profit margin 15% the top 3 highest among the peer in Malaysia
- Pe 7.5 now. eps expected to remain 2.5 sen every quarter.
- gearing only 0.1. very low debt company
- Very strong free cash flow, company have low capex and reinvest little in PPE(machine and equipment)
- net cash company, cash per share is 0.27.
- ROE :23, average 5 year ROE is 24
- themes company benefited from export since 90% sales from export ,50% from Asia Pacific, 28 from Europe
- catalyst: US dollar strong, recover of Euro country economy
- Management quite good since they deliver some targets they set previously.The best example is gtronic director" billion market cap dream"( follow that news ur own^^) can refer back their annual report. Either reduce of QE or increase interest rate will have little impact to Homeriz since I believe that strong US dollar will still benefit Homeriz in business for longer term
two major directors sell 3.5% of their share at rm0.68 within 4 month recently.(they gt 148million shares 70% of total company share)
I think that they just wan to increase liquidity of shares at market.
I think that they just wan to increase liquidity of shares at market.
Weakness
1)Homeriz do not have any expansion plan for future currently.It is lack of strong catalyst and it is quite boring for just waiting for quarter report every 4 month. less news will cause little fluctuation of the shares price.
1)Homeriz do not have any expansion plan for future currently.It is lack of strong catalyst and it is quite boring for just waiting for quarter report every 4 month. less news will cause little fluctuation of the shares price.
2) Sudden rise of sales not likely to occur some more but annual growth of 6-10% may achieve.
Conclusion
Homeriz is a steady dividend stock, it expected to become zero debt company within 2 years with its low capex.It is slightly below fair value 0.83 now.potential gain is 10%. solid fundamental secure the safety of share price and nice sleep every night is guarantee.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Introduction for some technology stocks
In general, there is a perception that technology stock is unpredictable and high risk. they have super high Pe, ridiculous high share price and only suitable for those speculators.... Nevertheless, stock market do have some technology stocks that giving good dividend yield and awesome capital return for its shareholder. the best example recently are Inari amerthon berhad and gtronic berhad.
Then you may wonder what is the criteria to pick up the next star in tech stock. Here, I do study some Malaysian tech stock and there are few as following:
1) Business that enable to bring profit
Most of the tech stock promise wonderful story and bright future. In order to earn uncommon profit from tech stock, we should focus in their coming quarter report to ensure the earning power of company instead of confuse by those sounded story. Do they deliver the promise is very important. If they dont,you must sell them without hesitation.
2) Acceptable PE <30
In general, the common PE for tech stock is around 20 to 50 in Malaysia. However, I will pick up the tech stock with PE as low as possible.
3) Must be in Green!!!!!
NEVER EVER invest tech stock that incur loss continuous for few quarter. You will never know that the company will go back profit or your stock become a worthless paper!
Optional... A potential tech stock should consists at least 4 from below:
4) Transfer to Main board trick
For your information, many tech stocks are listed at ACE market instead of Main board. Whatever the company said they aim to transfer into main board, the share price normally will raise. I think this is because that action proves the company fundamental is strong enough and eliminate the bad image of tech stock that have low earning and ridiculous pricing. However, the procedure of transfer to main board is time consuming and there is uncertainty in successfulness.
5) Dividend DY>1%
That is very important for a value investor.
6) Many corporate activities
This gives point for people to speculate and that is the most exciting for invest tech stock. For examples : bought by XXX institution, bid for XXX project, First time bonus issue, share split .......
7)"Cheap" enough
Tech stock that below RM 1. Easy to attract speculator.
8) High profit margin >10%
Finally, Monitoring closely .You should never buy tech stock if you lack of time to monitor because the changes of the industry is very fast for tech stock. Their product can be outdated at unforeseen period.
There are 6 tech stock that I think are worth to put in watch list
1) Digista
2) Iris
3) EAH
4) IDMENSN
5) Inari
6) ECS
Iris,0010 a stock that worth for putting it in your watch list....
detail- technology company
business:
1) IC--the world's first electronic passport and national multi-application smart card with the implementation of the Malaysian Electronic Passport in March 1998 and MyKAD
2)Environment friendly tech
3)building tech- IBS system which prevent the house collapse from earthquake
4) others
business are divesified into more that 30 countries
close relationship with govt for few countries
current share price rm 0.5
PE 30
ROE 6
net profit margin 5%
DY 1%
NTA 0.27
major shareholder -Felda 25%
not net cash company and lack of cash currently. iris planning for private placement now to raise cash.
Despite its weak fundamental currently, its business prospect is bright. It worth to invest if those project taken bring in $$, EPS can double up within one year to 3.2...the share currently fluctuate between 0.45 to 0.53.
Then you may wonder what is the criteria to pick up the next star in tech stock. Here, I do study some Malaysian tech stock and there are few as following:
1) Business that enable to bring profit
Most of the tech stock promise wonderful story and bright future. In order to earn uncommon profit from tech stock, we should focus in their coming quarter report to ensure the earning power of company instead of confuse by those sounded story. Do they deliver the promise is very important. If they dont,you must sell them without hesitation.
2) Acceptable PE <30
In general, the common PE for tech stock is around 20 to 50 in Malaysia. However, I will pick up the tech stock with PE as low as possible.
3) Must be in Green!!!!!
NEVER EVER invest tech stock that incur loss continuous for few quarter. You will never know that the company will go back profit or your stock become a worthless paper!
Optional... A potential tech stock should consists at least 4 from below:
4) Transfer to Main board trick
For your information, many tech stocks are listed at ACE market instead of Main board. Whatever the company said they aim to transfer into main board, the share price normally will raise. I think this is because that action proves the company fundamental is strong enough and eliminate the bad image of tech stock that have low earning and ridiculous pricing. However, the procedure of transfer to main board is time consuming and there is uncertainty in successfulness.
5) Dividend DY>1%
That is very important for a value investor.
6) Many corporate activities
This gives point for people to speculate and that is the most exciting for invest tech stock. For examples : bought by XXX institution, bid for XXX project, First time bonus issue, share split .......
7)"Cheap" enough
Tech stock that below RM 1. Easy to attract speculator.
8) High profit margin >10%
Finally, Monitoring closely .You should never buy tech stock if you lack of time to monitor because the changes of the industry is very fast for tech stock. Their product can be outdated at unforeseen period.
There are 6 tech stock that I think are worth to put in watch list
1) Digista
2) Iris
3) EAH
4) IDMENSN
5) Inari
6) ECS
Iris,0010 a stock that worth for putting it in your watch list....
detail- technology company
business:
1) IC--the world's first electronic passport and national multi-application smart card with the implementation of the Malaysian Electronic Passport in March 1998 and MyKAD
2)Environment friendly tech
3)building tech- IBS system which prevent the house collapse from earthquake
4) others
business are divesified into more that 30 countries
close relationship with govt for few countries
current share price rm 0.5
PE 30
ROE 6
net profit margin 5%
DY 1%
NTA 0.27
major shareholder -Felda 25%
not net cash company and lack of cash currently. iris planning for private placement now to raise cash.
Despite its weak fundamental currently, its business prospect is bright. It worth to invest if those project taken bring in $$, EPS can double up within one year to 3.2...the share currently fluctuate between 0.45 to 0.53.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Portfolio update
The following are the summary of all stock I invest now.
1)MKH- Mini IOI bhd. Directors are aggressive in acquire land for development, low cost of land purchase, huge land reserve. Besides, the accelerate growth for plantation in Kalimantan(15k ha), young oil palm with average tree year 5, high average FFB about 23 and high possible to acquire the plantation land to 100k ha. Beautiful balance sheet with continuous earn profit for ten year past. Acceptable DY( the time I buy in) and Profit margin> 10%. Currently, MKH share price stood at 4.80 and challenging the Target point set by Hwang DBS 5.20. This is the only outperform stock in my portfolio now and the price is above fair value. Therefore, Day Dreamer not recommend others to enter MKH at this timing.
2)Guh- Steady company, cash rich, buy back shares regularly, generous dividend paid 5%++ is the biggest play in Guh. Diversified business provide little risk. This is best pick for steady and long term investor.
3)MBSB- A finance company with very good record in all kind of financial ratio. Pe is about 9 which extremely low compare to other like Maybank, ambank, RHB bank and etc Recently, MBSB is expanding their capital by right issue and dividend reinvest plan. This showing the determination of MBSB to get bank license and become another blue chip! Not to mention, EPF is the biggest holder(65%) in MBSB. Most of our parents retired fund are coming from this company dividend. In short, MBSB is still undervalued at current price but patient is needed.
4)NTPM- The first stock I invest. NTPM inspired me with its good perform although the PE ratio is high at the time I purchase(14++).The one who change my perception which merely focus on financial ratio such PE, NTA, DY. I start to think about company future growth rate instead of those past figure.
5) Facbind- A company which is just recovered from loss. Personally speculate that 10 sen tax excluded dividend will be paid at the financial year end of this October. Base on the current price, at least 10 % gain will be earn with limited down turn risk at the same time. However, strict follow up and top up/cut loss are required once the next two quarter report are out.
Last but not least, I have add another long term investment in my portfolio last week. It is PRLEXUS 8966.
the EPS is increase continuously and believed that will benefit from the coming FIFA World Cup. This is because prlexus help the nike to produce the product. Day dreamer already dump all the rest of capital into this company.
***Try to do homework on you own, you are responsible on your decision made.
1)MKH- Mini IOI bhd. Directors are aggressive in acquire land for development, low cost of land purchase, huge land reserve. Besides, the accelerate growth for plantation in Kalimantan(15k ha), young oil palm with average tree year 5, high average FFB about 23 and high possible to acquire the plantation land to 100k ha. Beautiful balance sheet with continuous earn profit for ten year past. Acceptable DY( the time I buy in) and Profit margin> 10%. Currently, MKH share price stood at 4.80 and challenging the Target point set by Hwang DBS 5.20. This is the only outperform stock in my portfolio now and the price is above fair value. Therefore, Day Dreamer not recommend others to enter MKH at this timing.
2)Guh- Steady company, cash rich, buy back shares regularly, generous dividend paid 5%++ is the biggest play in Guh. Diversified business provide little risk. This is best pick for steady and long term investor.
3)MBSB- A finance company with very good record in all kind of financial ratio. Pe is about 9 which extremely low compare to other like Maybank, ambank, RHB bank and etc Recently, MBSB is expanding their capital by right issue and dividend reinvest plan. This showing the determination of MBSB to get bank license and become another blue chip! Not to mention, EPF is the biggest holder(65%) in MBSB. Most of our parents retired fund are coming from this company dividend. In short, MBSB is still undervalued at current price but patient is needed.
4)NTPM- The first stock I invest. NTPM inspired me with its good perform although the PE ratio is high at the time I purchase(14++).The one who change my perception which merely focus on financial ratio such PE, NTA, DY. I start to think about company future growth rate instead of those past figure.
5) Facbind- A company which is just recovered from loss. Personally speculate that 10 sen tax excluded dividend will be paid at the financial year end of this October. Base on the current price, at least 10 % gain will be earn with limited down turn risk at the same time. However, strict follow up and top up/cut loss are required once the next two quarter report are out.
Last but not least, I have add another long term investment in my portfolio last week. It is PRLEXUS 8966.
the EPS is increase continuously and believed that will benefit from the coming FIFA World Cup. This is because prlexus help the nike to produce the product. Day dreamer already dump all the rest of capital into this company.
***Try to do homework on you own, you are responsible on your decision made.
Friday, March 7, 2014
Top 3 rules for investing
Before invest in any stock, you must set some rules to yourself and strictly follow it. The benefit
is that you can avoid dilemma of being hesitate in making decision. There are three rules that day dreamer strictly follow to...
- Think for the loss first before gain.
People normally buy stock base on the TP ( target price) or research by either famous research house or other investor. They attracted by the fantasy upside potential gain which is too good be to true. They believe that the expertise of the research house or investor will bring them for prosperity. However, they forget that other people are not responsible to help them earn money. The TP set/ research by the experts may subject to many outside changes, difference period to achieve and present of the big player. Most of the time, the timing is not good since some people are knew earlier and the stock price not longer cheap. If you follow the buy at that time, most properly you will stuck between paper gain and loss of 10% for months. Patience will be the good friend for you at that time. As long as the company is good, the share price sure will up....
Day dreamer will set stop loss for some short term trade counter. On the other hands, day dreamer will ignore the paper loss occur in long or mid term investment as long as the reason I buy those investment are still exist. Loss 15% or 30% is doesn't matter. Day dreamer will treat it as Mega sales and buy more if there are capital. As cold eyes quotes"if the share price drop and you are not dare to buy more, most properly that is not the best investment for you "
2. Invest the company which you understand
Hard work is needed for rule no 2. What you need to do is study the company base on what analysis tool you rely on. The analysis tool can be anything range from fundamental analysis, technical analysis, TA software, internal news, management reputation,nature of industry , prey from god.（求真字？？)
Normally, Day dreamer will analysis the company by Fundamental analysis and management reputation. Identify whether the company is good and what is the intrinsic value for it. Then, find out the good buying timing by Technical analysis and analysis about equity changes happen in that company for recent time. In between, Day Dreamer will decide and set up a particular strategy for the company. Whether short trade or long term hold, or ignore. In short, the better you understand about a company, the higher chance for you to earn uncommon profit.
3. Set up strategy for every stock you invest
Cite from my own quote "As long as there are a techniques, you still can find a good deal in spite of the company is a bad apple". Every company will encounter business cyclical. Last year profit good,this year better,next year normal. With deep understanding about nature of the company business.We can take the opportunity to earn big profit by buying when the industry/business is in the recession and sell when the industry/ business is in the peak. Day dreamer define it as mid term strategy. For another examples, you need to set up cut loss point and cut gain point if using short term trade for particular stock. When the stock price reach the stop loss point you must cut it without hesitation as follow to the strategy instead of hold it for break even. You should not simply change the strategic apply for the stock.
Kick start of the blogger life
Just before you read anything in my blog, I think this is important for you to know that..
Who the hell that Day dreamer is? Warren Buffet in Malaysian?A super investor? Liar? Cheater? Senior investor? Trader? Basically, I just a newbie in investing stock.
Why not invest in property, forex, future,gold or business? This is because I has limited capital and so I am not affordable for those investment. However, as time goes by, I will try them when I become more knowledgeable and the timing is right. Nowadays, day dreamer is merely focus on stock investment.
I have been indulge in investment started from secondary school. The kick start was tough indeed. That was insane at those school days when a science stream student without any accounting basis try to read those book that relate to investment which consists of many jargon. However, I still went through this difficulty with the burning desire to become financial freedom someday.Finally, I have been read billion pages of books and articles regarding investing stock before graduated from secondary school and found to fall in love with figures and accounting. Next, I chose to pursue my study for accounting degree for deeper formal financial knowledge and started my real journey in investing stock since 2013.
So, I thought it was about time I put down my thoughts in writing. Start to trace down my journey in investing stock, sharing my knowledge and some idea how to operate some stock in certain timing. Please feel free to comment if any mistake I have made during analysis for some company in the future.
If you are like me, every sens is a hard earn money.If your appetite for risk is medium,let join my journey to build a portfolio which achieve compound return 25% at least per annum.
Most of the time, i will be writing about Stocks investing by way of Value Investing, discover every single hidden gems. Nevertheless, I will utilize approximately 20% of my total portfolio in short term trading to find excitement in stock market and earn some fast dollar. (Always remember that short term trade is far risky that value investing, please do research properly before that and buy at own risk.)
Who the hell that Day dreamer is? Warren Buffet in Malaysian?A super investor? Liar? Cheater? Senior investor? Trader? Basically, I just a newbie in investing stock.
Why not invest in property, forex, future,gold or business? This is because I has limited capital and so I am not affordable for those investment. However, as time goes by, I will try them when I become more knowledgeable and the timing is right. Nowadays, day dreamer is merely focus on stock investment.
I have been indulge in investment started from secondary school. The kick start was tough indeed. That was insane at those school days when a science stream student without any accounting basis try to read those book that relate to investment which consists of many jargon. However, I still went through this difficulty with the burning desire to become financial freedom someday.Finally, I have been read billion pages of books and articles regarding investing stock before graduated from secondary school and found to fall in love with figures and accounting. Next, I chose to pursue my study for accounting degree for deeper formal financial knowledge and started my real journey in investing stock since 2013.
So, I thought it was about time I put down my thoughts in writing. Start to trace down my journey in investing stock, sharing my knowledge and some idea how to operate some stock in certain timing. Please feel free to comment if any mistake I have made during analysis for some company in the future.
If you are like me, every sens is a hard earn money.If your appetite for risk is medium,let join my journey to build a portfolio which achieve compound return 25% at least per annum.
Most of the time, i will be writing about Stocks investing by way of Value Investing, discover every single hidden gems. Nevertheless, I will utilize approximately 20% of my total portfolio in short term trading to find excitement in stock market and earn some fast dollar. (Always remember that short term trade is far risky that value investing, please do research properly before that and buy at own risk.)
Last but not least, Here is my quotes to share"As long as the company is
good,the share price sure will up but only the time do matter;As long as there are a techniques, you still can find a good deal in spite of the company is a bad apple"
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