Saturday, May 10, 2014

technical analysis for Homeriz






TA for homeriz. buy base on Elliott Wave Theory
stochastic cross over at bottom region( rebound signal)
RSI at 30%. It show oversold and it is time to greedy when everyone not damn it.
TP 0.83( the blue circle up there) should be achieved within 3 weeks. 10 % gains excluded 1sen per share dividend in 28 MAY.


Note: recommended to set stop loss for 10% if the TP is not achieve within 3 weeks if you go for short term. Keep until next year march at least after final dividend if go for long term. Not recommend for mid term trade since lack of strong catalyst.( assume fundamental remain)  

Homeriz sharing base on Fundamental analysis

Homeriz had attracted my eyes ball few days ago when I accidentally go through some investing forum. Therefore, the following is  my homework for Homeriz base on Fundamental analysis. Although it seems quite late for sharing furniture stocks in this period since most of them are already double up in share price after those shining quarter result are out respectively. But anyway, hope your guys enjoy it....  





Homeriz, 5160... an Upholstered home furniture not wooden based products.
  1. NTA, 0.43 
  2. DY 5% 2.75 sen per share at Jan, 1 sen per share at May,Company implied 40% dividend payout...approximately can get 4-6 sen per annum  
  3. Net profit margin 15% the top 3 highest among the peer in Malaysia
  4. Pe 7.5 now. eps expected to remain 2.5 sen every quarter.
  5. gearing only 0.1. very low debt company
  6. Very strong free cash flow, company have low capex and reinvest little in PPE(machine and equipment)
  7. net cash company, cash per share is 0.27.
  8. ROE :23, average 5 year ROE is 24 
  9. themes                                                                                                                                   company benefited from export since 90% sales from export ,50% from Asia Pacific, 28 from Europe
  10. catalyst: US dollar strong, recover of Euro country economy 
  • Management                                                                                                                                    quite good since they deliver some targets they set previously.The best example is gtronic director" billion market cap dream"( follow that news ur own^^) can refer back their annual report.     Either reduce of QE or increase interest rate will have little impact to Homeriz since I believe that strong US dollar will still benefit Homeriz in business for longer term
                          Doubt 
two major directors sell 3.5% of their share at rm0.68 within 4 month recently.(they gt 148million shares 70% of total company share)
I think that they just wan to increase liquidity of shares at market.

                        Weakness
1)Homeriz do not have any expansion plan for future currently.It is lack of strong catalyst and it is quite boring for just waiting for quarter report every 4 month. less news will cause little fluctuation of the shares price. 
2) Sudden rise of sales not likely to occur some more but annual growth of 6-10% may achieve. 



Conclusion
Homeriz is a steady dividend stock, it expected to become zero debt company within 2 years with its low capex.It is slightly below fair value 0.83 now.potential gain is 10%. solid fundamental secure the safety of share price and nice sleep every night is guarantee.